So far the Russian economy has proven to be quite resilient, despite severe limitations last year. However, we understand that small business suffered a lot last time, and if restrictions are imposed this year, the blow will be even more significant. The Ministry of Economic Development's current forecast for Russian economic growth in 2021 is 2.9%, i.e. we have a certain margin of safety.

The decline in morbidity and the lifting of possible restrictive measures are, of course, the main point for improvement. However, on the economic plane, the recovery is most strongly influenced by purchasing power; this is the main driver for those areas of business that are most confirmed by the restrictions. The current policy of the central bank, expressed in an increase of the key rate, indicates that the authorities understand the problem and are struggling with rising inflation, increasing the attractiveness of the ruble as a currency for investment. All this should support the purchasing power at the levels achieved today.

Speaking of global changes and prospects for investment, it is better to look at trends that emerged before the pandemic, but are strongly accelerating against the background of restrictions and market adaptation to the new reality: online commerce, flexible spaces and co-working spaces.